It’s a situation that’s all too familiar for Pakistan cricket fans. The team finds itself in a tight spot, reminiscent of the 1992 World Cup, hoping for a dramatic turnaround and relying on a series of fortunate events. Led by the talented Babar Azam, Pakistan entered the 2023 World Cup as one of the title contenders. Armed with top-class batters and a fiery pace attack, they appeared to have all the elements needed for a successful campaign in India. However, their journey took an unexpected turn. After a promising start with victories against the Netherlands and Sri Lanka, Pakistan faced an unprecedented setback, with four consecutive losses, a first of its kind in World Cup history for Pakistan.
Amidst the gloom, the question that lingers in fans’ minds is whether Pakistan can pull off a miraculous entry into the semifinals. Realistically, the road ahead appears challenging, and the odds seem stacked against them. Even if they manage to secure wins against Bangladesh on Tuesday at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata, or against 2019 runner-up New Zealand on November 4, or even a beleaguered England on November 11 in their final league game, Pakistan’s semifinal hopes remain hanging by a thread.
A win in all three remaining games would only earn them a maximum of 10 points. This alone might not suffice to secure a semifinal spot. A significant part of Pakistan’s fate now depends on how the league phase unfolds for the remaining teams.
The Scenarios for Pakistan’s Hope
- Australia’s Misfortune: Pakistan would need Australia, presently occupying the fourth spot with eight points in six games, to lose all three of their remaining matches against Afghanistan, England, and Bangladesh. This would level the playing field and leave Australia with eight points.
- Sri Lanka’s Struggles: For Pakistan’s hopes to stay alive, they would hope that Sri Lanka loses at least two of their remaining three matches, which include games against India, New Zealand, and Bangladesh. This would restrict Sri Lanka’s points tally to a maximum of six.
- New Zealand’s Setback: If New Zealand loses at least two of their remaining three matches, they will only be able to reach the 10-point mark. This would be another scenario in Pakistan’s favor.
The recent impressive victory by Afghanistan against Pakistan in Pune has added complexity to the situation. To maximize their chances, Pakistan not only needs the above scenarios but also requires Afghanistan to stumble in at least two matches, preferably against the Netherlands and South Africa. Furthermore, Afghanistan must beat Australia but with a margin that doesn’t negatively affect Pakistan’s net run rate.
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In addition to these complex scenarios, Pakistan must ensure that their victories are substantial enough to improve their net run rate (NRR) by the end of the league stage. NRR can often be the deciding factor when teams are tied on points. Hence, Pakistan’s margin of victories in their remaining matches is important.
As Pakistan strives to keep its semifinal dreams alive, the upcoming matches in the 2023 World Cup will hold the key to their fate. Cricket enthusiasts and Pakistan fans worldwide will watch closely as the team battles the odds in pursuit of a place in the semifinals.
