There are still 10 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, making several teams qualify for the top two and making ESPN cricinfo’s declarations remain largely hypothetical. South Africa currently lead the table with a percentage of 63.33, having two home matches remaining against Pakistan. Their recent 2-0 series sweep against Sri Lanka has made everything right. For that, they only need to win one Test against Pakistan to secure a slot in the final. A 1-1 series result would leave them with 61.11 percent, with only India or Australia in a position to overtake them.
Should both Tests end in a draw, South Africa would finish with 58.33 per cent. In such a case, India would have to win 3-2 against Australia and Australia should win both Tests in Sri Lanka to surpass South Africa. If South Africa lose the series 1-0, they would then depend on either Australia winning no more than two of their remaining five Tests or India securing no more than one win and one draw from their three remaining Tests in Australia.
Sri Lanka now stands with 45.45 per cent. The team has left with two home matches against Australia. If they win both matches, the tally will only rise to 53.85 per cent, and dependence will be on other results. South Africa and either India or Australia can go beyond that percentage. To ensure both teams finish under 53.85 per cent, Australia needs to win its series against India 2-1 with two draws, while South Africa needs to lose both Tests against Pakistan.
From this percentage of 57.9, India has three remaining away Tests against Australia. To secure a place in the final, they need to win two and draw one; then they will be at 60.53, losing out on the first position but certainly making it to the final ahead of South Africa. If India were to win the series 3-2, they would finish at 58.77 per cent, and Australia could still finish below them if they win against Sri Lanka 1-0. But should India lose the series 2-3, their tally would be 53.51; this would enable Australia, Sri Lanka, and South Africa to surpass them. In this case, India would need to pray for the South African team to lose both Tests against Pakistan and that Australia manages at least a draw in Sri Lanka.
Australia, holding an average of 60.71, has three home Tests against India and two away in Sri Lanka coming up. They will require at least two wins from those three matches against India to qualify for the final. Even if they fall short of victory in those two clashes against Sri Lanka, they will remain above the 55.26 mark after beating India by 3-2. If Australia loses 3-2, India would be at 58.77, so obviously Australia has to win both Tests in Sri Lanka to be above India. They may also rely on South Africa not having more than one draw against Pakistan, which will keep South Africa at 55.56; that’s touchable for Australia by winning and drawing in Sri Lanka.
Mathematically, Pakistan stands a stately chance of qualifying for 33.33 percent, but this will only happen if South Africa reduces an over-rate point. Even winning all four other matches will put the team at 52.38 percent – marginally less than the 52.78 percent South African score. But in case South Africa loses a game, the point will drop down to 52.08 percent. Thus, though with a couple of other results favorable for Pakistan, mathematically it may finish second to whom either Australia or India.
Now, even New Zealand, England, Bangladesh, and West Indies have found themselves eliminated from the running for a final slot.